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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FailureResilienceRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |