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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FailureResilienceRisk | RiskDecisionSensemaking | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |