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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 60-180 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 4-20 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FailureResilienceRisk | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | RiskDecisionSensemaking |