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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FailureResilienceRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |