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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-12 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FailureResilienceRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |