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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile ROAM Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When work needs to move between different states or columns, it makes that movement and its handoffs legible. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a ROAM Board and an Owner List. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 5-20 min | 20-40 min initial, dann laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 3-20 | 3-15 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | ROAM Board, Owner List |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | RiskAgileTrackingAlignment |