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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |