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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 4-12 Experten | 2-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortAgile |