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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 min5-20 min1-4 h or multiple rounds1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-83-204-12 Experten6-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationExpertsForecasting
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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