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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 1-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | RiskDecisionSensemaking |