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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 1-3 h | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 4-10 | 2-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationEffortAgile |