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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When many hypotheses compete for attention, it brings order to their learning sequence and importance. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritization canvas and a hypothesis backlog. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 20-35 min | 60-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 1-5 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Prioritization Canvas, Hypothesis Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsPrioritizationDiscoveryHypothesis |