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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 30-60 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |