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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 30-60 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |