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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 2-4 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | Root causeSafetyIncident |