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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 1-2 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |