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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Facilitation Decision Jam |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When a decision is stuck, Decision Jam loosens the knot through structured separation of problem, idea, and selection. The format creates movement without jumping prematurely at the first seemingly elegant answer. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 60-90 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 4-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Problem Cluster, Prioritized Challenge, Experiment | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | FacilitationDecisionProblem solvingWorkshop | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |