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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 min5-20 min45-60 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-83-202-81-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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