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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | 45-90 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | DecisionTreeOptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortRisk |