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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMediumHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 min2-6 h1-3 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-83-82-83-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasCausal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage PointsEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
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