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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 2-6 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetyIncident |