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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | 5-20 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 3-20 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | EstimationEffortRisk | Root causeSafetyIncident |