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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Half day | 0.5-2 Tage | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 4-12 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationEffortRisk |