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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  DevOps Blameless Postmortem |  Operations After-Action Review |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | After an incident with damage or a near miss, the method creates a sober field for learning without assigning blame. It directs attention to the course of events, conditions, and effective countermeasures. | After missions or project phases with unclear outcomes, the method makes visible what actually happened and what can be learned from it. It separates course, effect, and causes so experience turns into solid improvement. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | 20-45 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-12 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Postmortem Doc, Action Items, Timeline | Lessons learned, Action items, Event summary | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Site Reliability EngineeringIncidentLearningReliability | LearningOperationsImprovement | EstimationEffortRisk |