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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 5-20 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-20 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |