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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 5-20 min | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-20 | 2-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationEffortAgile |