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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth A/B Testing |  Growth Pirate Metrics AARRR |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | For products with complex usage paths, overall growth alone is too coarse to reveal bottlenecks. Pirate Metrics breaks the relationship with the product into consecutive stages and shows where the funnel actually leaks. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | AARRR funnel, Metric baseline, Experiment backlog | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | GrowthMetricsExperiments | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |