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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery |