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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |