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Criterion
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
1 h bis mehrere Wochen1-5 Tage5-20 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-8Nutzertraffic3-202-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangeInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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