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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 15-45 min | laufend | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationEffortRisk |