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Criterion
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Purposedifferent
For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
1 h bis mehrere Wochen15-45 min45-60 min5-20 min
Participantsdifferent
1-81-82-83-20
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangePERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets
Tagsno overlap
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationEffortRisk
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