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| Criterion |  Knowledge Modeling PARA Method |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The PARA Method organizes knowledge into Projects, Areas, Resources, and Archives. It creates order when digital notes, files, and tasks no longer cleanly fit current work. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h Setup, laufend | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1 | 4-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PARA Structure, Project Notes, Knowledge Archive | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | KnowledgeProductivityOrganization | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery |