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| Criterion |  Knowledge Modeling PARA Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The PARA Method organizes knowledge into Projects, Areas, Resources, and Archives. It creates order when digital notes, files, and tasks no longer cleanly fit current work. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h Setup, laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PARA Structure, Project Notes, Knowledge Archive | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | KnowledgeProductivityOrganization | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |