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| Criterion |  Knowledge Modeling PARA Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The PARA Method organizes knowledge into Projects, Areas, Resources, and Archives. It creates order when digital notes, files, and tasks no longer cleanly fit current work. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h Setup, laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PARA Structure, Project Notes, Knowledge Archive | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | KnowledgeProductivityOrganization | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |