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| Criterion |  Knowledge Modeling PARA Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The PARA Method organizes knowledge into Projects, Areas, Resources, and Archives. It creates order when digital notes, files, and tasks no longer cleanly fit current work. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h Setup, laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-45 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PARA Structure, Project Notes, Knowledge Archive | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | KnowledgeProductivityOrganization | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow |