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Criterion
Paper illustration of a branching tree with an outcome at its root, customer opportunities, solution options and small experiment cards.
Product Discovery
Opportunity Solution Tree
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-2 h Setup, laufend5-20 min45-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-63-202-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Opportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning LogEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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