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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 2-6 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |