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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | FlowMeasurementConstraints | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |