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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations Runbook |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For recurring operational tasks or incidents, the method keeps solid action logic ready. It reduces uncertainty when time pressure, role changes, or rare situations demand fast access. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 20-60 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-4 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Runbook, Checklist, Escalation Path | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | OperationsReliabilityDocumentation | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |