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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth Flywheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | 60-120 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | GrowthRetentionConversion | EstimationEffortRisk |