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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |