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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |