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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |