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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |