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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-12 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | KnowledgeMappingRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |