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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-5 Tage | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 4-12 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Leverage Map, Action Strategy |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy |