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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Knowledge Modeling Concept Mapping |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Concept Mapping arranges terms and relationships in a network that makes subject-matter connections tangible. It fits when a topic needs to be understood structurally rather than linearly. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-2 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Concept Map, Relationship Labels, Knowledge Gaps | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | KnowledgeConceptsMappingSensemaking | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |