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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |