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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-5 Tage | 60-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingFlowDelivery |